知海資訊
zhihai news
2019年1月，VesselsValue評選出最具升值潛力的二手船是集裝箱船和LPG船，預計到2020年漲幅最大的二手船型有四個：10年船齡的4250teu箱船預計價格將超過1500萬美元，升值幅度高達50%；15年船齡的35000立方米LPG船預計將超過2100萬美元，升值幅度高達47%；20年船齡1750teu箱船價格預計將達到500萬美元，升值幅度32%；20年船齡78000立方米VLGC價格預計將達到2300萬美元，升值幅度為29%。
Overall, the outlook for shipping asset prices remains bright, but several areas are more attractive than others. The VesselsValue forecast takes many factors into consideration when assessing each vessel class and age. Today we’ll look at some of the most appealing segments and the fundamental reasons why ships of this size are more likely to appreciate. Subscribers have access to a far more granular look at all ship types and ages, allowing for accurate risk assessment of any ship purchases or to identify attractive market segments.
Container
Container ships have dominated the buying opportunities over the past several quarters, and many have taken advantage of this trend to make carefully informed purchases in this space. 10 year old Panamax container vessels represent the strongest buying opportunity in the current outlook.
Even though recycling activity has slowed, the global container market balance has tightened in 2018. Furthermore, declining speed has been an important factor this year and slower speeds are expected to be the new normal.
Container secondhand values increased during the first half of the year but have since shown a softer development for most sizes. Newbuilding prices have been increasing year to date for the feeder vessels and the recent ordering activity is slowly improving shipyards’ forward books. Despite the increase in new orders, the global orderbook for all shipping segments is still at low levels as deliveries from yards have outpaced new orders being placed.
LPG
Third quarter earnings for VLGCs and Midsize tonnage have been improving on the base of higher LPG volumes out of the US and a more active ammonia market. Higher LPG imports to Europe and a strong Indian market have supported Medium Gas Carriers (MGCs) and Handysizes too. The pressurized market remains very strong. Petrochemical trades are active to Asia and supported by higher US trade, but import to Europe is down, as economic activity has slowed.
The supply and demand balance for VLGCs has been improving, and this will be reflected in higher numbers for vessels. Older units are priced more competitively, with an expected upside of about 30 percent on a 20 year old unit by the start of 2020.
MGCs also represent a strong buying opportunity. MGCs of 35,000 cubic meters are also an attractive option. A 15 year old vessel could see a boost of almost 50 percent over the next year.
（資料來源: VesselsValue）
